Go away td 4

[quack quack]

Looked at tropical storm Dean this morning and ran the historical tracks for storms that formed around the same spot in August.Take a look for yourselves.

Tropical Storm: Historical Tracking Map : Weather Underground

[Uncle Buck]

Living in South Florida my whole life, I've come to accept that there ain't a dang thing we can do about an approaching storm. It's gonna do what it wants. All we can do is prepare for the worst, and hope it only scares us enough so people will buy hurricane shutters from EmiJess.

[catching]

not going to worry about it until next week here is yesterdays blog on the models

What the models say
Several major models--the ECMWF and NOGAPS--do not develop TD 4 at all. The GFS, UKMET, and new HWRF model all develop the system, and bring it to a strong tropical storm or hurricane by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. The big question is how strong the trough of low pressure predicted to pass north of TD 4 on Friday will be. If the trough is stronger than currently forecast, it may be able to pull TD 4 far enough north so that it misses the Lesser Antilles. This would be good for the islands, but potentially bad for the U.S. East Coast. The trough will likely not be strong enough to recurve TD 4 harmlessly out to sea, and the storm would then be forced westwards again by the next ridge of high pressure. A landfall along the U.S. East Coast as a hurricane--possibly a major hurricane--could result, unless the next trough of low pressure is strong enough to recurve the storm out to sea. The latest (12Z) run of the UKMET model has TD 4 passing through the very northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. The 12Z GFDL, GFS, and HWRF have TD 4 jogging just far enough north that it would likely miss the islands. Some of these runs are considerably slower, delaying the possible impact to the islands to Saturday or Sunday. What may happen after 5 days is highly uncertain. Last night's GFS model run had TD 4 eventually making landfall south of Brownsville, Texas. This morning's run had it eventually hitting New England--a difference of about 2000 miles in landfall location!

[Certifiable]

The year 2004 brought a few interesting observations. We got nailed pretty bad on the Treasure Coast (Vero) by back to back canes (Francis and Jeane.....bitches !!).
After Frances, the state shut down all alcohol sales for 7 days. Just when we could go and buy a beer to relieve the stress....here comes that other bitch Jeane.
What did we learn ? Going to the grocery store for MORE hurricane supplies before the storm, and what did we notice ?
The shelves were overflowing with water......but there wasn't a can of beer to found....anywhere !! Not even the crap stuff like Black label and Ole swillwaukee....it was all gone !
We is pretty smart fellers down here in the South...aint we !

[Nick C]

Originally Posted by Certifiable

The year 2004 brought a few interesting observations. We got nailed pretty bad on the Treasure Coast (Vero) by back to back canes (Francis and Jeane.....bitches !!).
After Frances, the state shut down all alcohol sales for 7 days. Just when we could go and buy a beer to relieve the stress....here comes that other bitch Jeane.
What did we learn ? Going to the grocery store for MORE hurricane supplies before the storm, and what did we notice ?
The shelves were overflowing with water......but there wasn't a can of beer to found....anywhere !! Not even the crap stuff like Black label and Ole swillwaukee....it was all gone !
We is pretty smart fellers down here in the South...aint we !

[BLUELIGHT SPECIAL]

Originally Posted by catching

not going to worry about it until next week here is yesterdays blog on the models

What the models say
Several major models--the ECMWF and NOGAPS--do not develop TD 4 at all. The GFS, UKMET, and new HWRF model all develop the system, and bring it to a strong tropical storm or hurricane by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. The big question is how strong the trough of low pressure predicted to pass north of TD 4 on Friday will be. If the trough is stronger than currently forecast, it may be able to pull TD 4 far enough north so that it misses the Lesser Antilles. This would be good for the islands, but potentially bad for the U.S. East Coast. The trough will likely not be strong enough to recurve TD 4 harmlessly out to sea, and the storm would then be forced westwards again by the next ridge of high pressure. A landfall along the U.S. East Coast as a hurricane--possibly a major hurricane--could result, unless the next trough of low pressure is strong enough to recurve the storm out to sea. The latest (12Z) run of the UKMET model has TD 4 passing through the very northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. The 12Z GFDL, GFS, and HWRF have TD 4 jogging just far enough north that it would likely miss the islands. Some of these runs are considerably slower, delaying the possible impact to the islands to Saturday or Sunday. What may happen after 5 days is highly uncertain. Last night's GFS model run had TD 4 eventually making landfall south of Brownsville, Texas. This morning's run had it eventually hitting New England--a difference of about 2000 miles in landfall location!

OK-- DR CATCHING

[catching]

no doctor just relaying that there is a 2000 miles of coast it might hit if it even makes it to US as a hurricane just there are fish to be caught and tournaments to win this week

[Uncle Buck]

We stockpile enough beer to last us through 2 or 3 back to back hurricanes, and a NASCAR race or two. Then we buy water.

[BLUELIGHT SPECIAL]

Originally Posted by Uncle Buck

We stockpile enough beer to last us through 2 or 3 back to back hurricanes, and a NASCAR race or two. Then we buy water.

SHE'S STILL WAITIN TO KEEP YA WARM

[DIRTYFOOT2]

Guess I've waited long enuff to pull the generator out, change the oil, and fire her up. The historical map is interesting......ANDREW started out in a similiar fashion. Learned a valuable lesson about generator safety after Frances. Course I learned it the hard way. Deciced in a moment of cerebral weakness to check the oil level, while the generator was running. Me and the side of the house got scalded w/ hot oil. Not my most shining moment. MORAL: Thou shall turn off the generator before checking the oil. Look forward to a good pre-storm bite if this one comes our way

[RiskTaker]

Maybe the bite will turn on after the storm too. But they have to be around to catch them.

Good advice: need to stock up on some critical supplies this week.

And check the generator, chainsaw, fuel provisions and fill the boat, and car with fuel.

Go North baby, go north, all the way to the Flemish Cap: arrrgh!

[FishFinder]

not looking very good for us down here, we can only wait and see what happens

[Disco Lady]

Coño!!!!!! got my Jack daniel...... ready for the storm.

[Captain Juan]

Get the brew, the liquor, the herb, pills, whateva, but Dean aint coming!

(I am going fishing late next week so I know he aint comin.)

Let's keep a positive outlook. Don't let WSVN whip you into a frenzy. Cono!

J

[Flatsfish B]

I think that latest model took a turn to the north towards us

[Disco Lady]

[Relentless33]

HURRICANES ARE SUPPOSED TO WAIT UNTIL SCHOOL STARTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jonnythrottle]

Originally Posted by Relentless33

HURRICANES ARE SUPPOSED TO WAIT UNTIL SCHOOL STARTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i know wat grade are you in pm me .

[Disco Lady]

Jr......... Coño!!!!!!

Cheers,DL

[Relentless33]

I hope this storm turns into a category 8 and takes out Boca High....but leaves my house alone.

I'll be a freshman.