So the possible answers seems simple
1. The bluefin are in fine shape but are smarter than the fish of years ago as they are not being caught, or seen, in the same numbers as years ago. 1% chance
2. The bluefin are in fine shape and are constantly chasing bait which is less prevalent so they are all spread out all over the world and we have no freakin idea about just how many there might. 5% chance as years ago there were few herring and they ate the heck out of bluefish which there are now as many of as ever.
3. The bluefin are in trouble and Vinnie figures if no other countries are willing to go the conservative route why should we and he is pushing his experience in the field to get us to think as he does. Do you think? 94% chance.
I lived in NY until 72 and when I was young we had huge runs of all size BFT every fall. I caught my first giant in 58 when I was just 14. At the same time we were catching the Bahamas saw lots of fish in the April/May time frame. In the later 70's I fished with my buddy out of Chatham on his 35 foot Bruno when we both baited and stuck fish at times with aerial assistance. There were 3 seiners with "grandfathered" permits working Cape Cod Bay and when they would wrap a good school the stick boats would stay at the floats and harpoon the fish that actually jumped over the float line. I caught my thousand pounder and the same day there must have been 100 fish taken between the fleet off Chatham and the "moonie" fleet that lived on Stellwagen. The "Cookie" with the Murray boys was the best boat out there and now I don't think they even fish the tuna anymore. Their catches were memorable to say the least. My friends those days and numbers have not been seen since so is it #1, 2, or 3 that is the reason. I know what I think. Harry